This coming Saturday, 12/12, we are going to have a somewhat different meeting.
We are teaming up with our guests, Dan Balaban and Dr. Jerome Keating, for a special discussion on Taiwan's election, politics and future directions.
Dan is a journalist from California, United States, but he had stayed in Paris as an expat for 14 years and then arrived in Taipei a year ago for his technical publication business. As described by himself, Dan is “a journalist, exploder of myths and keen political observer." He is interested in knowing more about Taiwan, particularly on the hot topic of politics, especially when the election is drawing near in just six weeks. In addition, Dan has invited a Taiwan political commentator and author, Dr. Jerome Keating, to attend the meeting and join the discussion. Dr. Keating is a formal NTU associate professor and has lived in Taiwan since 1988.
For this meeting we would like to positively and constructively discuss our thoughts and opinions about what has been wrong in the past, what the current issues are on this island and most important, what the solutions may be for the better future. Of course, our knowledge is not necessarily deep or accurate, our personal influence may be limited, but why not just treat this as another great opportunity to practice English by introducing and expressing our understanding of our own homeland to some foreign friends?
As Taiwan Gears Up For Elections, China, As Always, Looms Large(with Audio)
http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2 ... ooms-large
A historic meeting is happening this Saturday in Singapore between the two Chinas — that is, the leaders of China and Taiwan. They're meeting for the first time since 1949, when one side lost the Chinese civil war and fled to Taiwan.
On the streets of Taiwan's capital, Taipei, everyone speaks Chinese. And everyone looks Chinese — as 98 percent of the population is ethnically Chinese. But the experiences of those in Taiwan haven't been the same as China's for decades.
"Taiwan has for the last 20 years had a democracy, had five presidential elections," says Nathan Batto, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a public research center in Taipei. "Nothing like that has happened in China."
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou heads to Singapore this weekend for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Even though Taiwan walks like and talks like its own country — with its own military, foreign diplomacy and government services — the mainland People's Republic of China refuses to recognize it as anything more than a renegade province.
"Taiwan has the awkward position in the world of being a state that's not recognized as a state," Batto says — either by China or most other countries.
That awkward position is at the forefront as Taiwan heads into a January presidential election — its sixth since becoming a democracy.
At the headquarters for front-runner Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee, volunteers staff a campaign store, supporters bounce in to bring donations in plastic piggy banks and they've decked a wall in Post-it messages for Tsai.
"If she is regarded as someone who is able to lead the country, that is a high symbol, that's a very good symbol of Taiwan's advancement," says Joseph Wu, Tsai's No. 2 and the DPP secretary.
Previously the party has called for independence from China, but this time around, it's signaling a more pragmatic approach. "We want to maintain the status quo. We want to maintain the current democratic way of life," Wu says.
It is the outgoing Kuomintang or Nationalist Party president, Ma Ying-Jeou, whose policies have arguably led to the current status quo with China. He has pushed for tighter ties with the mainland over the past seven years in the form of trade deals, lifting of travel bans and, as a capstone, this first-ever meeting with a Chinese president on Saturday.
But voters don't necessarily like Beijing's growing influence. It shows in the polls, where opposition candidate Tsai leads the president's party by double digits.
"As far as the Chinese government is concerned, the wrong person is very likely to win," says Shelley Rigger, author of Why Taiwan Matters and East Asian studies professor at North Carolina's Davidson College. "Their challenge now is to figure out what they want to do about that."
One of the ways China's leadership is doing that is by meeting President Ma this week — before the election. And what China could do after the election, if another party takes over, is now part of the Nationalist Kuomintang's message.
"When DPP was in power, the cross-strait relationship was not so stable," says Kuomintang presidential candidate Eric Chu, referring to years between 2000 and 2008 under a DPP president, when cross-strait ties were frayed. "President Ma's economic and political strategy for engaging China has been reasonable and very effective."
But in a sign of how nuanced politics are in Taipei, you can't have a strategy of getting too engaged with China, either. Chu only became the nominee after the party ousted its original pick — for signaling she was open to reunification.
"The question now that they are now really competing about and struggling over is how can we continue to have a reasonably amicable relationship with the mainland without being drawn into a reconciliation that goes beyond what we're really ready for," says Rigger.
For all the talk about China, in the end, it might be domestic issues that make the difference. Political observers say dissatisfaction with the ruling party has less to do with China and more to do with kitchen-table concerns like job opportunities. The opposition DPP says that's where it will focus its attention.
"We will see a very different Taiwan — which is very different from President Ma's administration, which is too much focus on China," says Wu.
Of course, China won't let itself be ignored, either. Every politician in Taiwan knows that.
Suggested Questions for Session I:
Q1.As unemployment rate remains high (or As wages continue to stagnate) and unpaid leave becomes more prevalent, Taiwan's economy is in a slump. What are the root causes? Are the direction and policies taken by the government to blame? The vicissitudes of the global finance? Or any other factors?
(台灣的失業率居高不下,企業放無薪假,經濟情況不佳,您認為是什麼因素造成? 國際情勢的影響? 政府沒做好自己的工作?還是其他什麼問題?)
Q2.To follow up on the question above, please list what you see as some of the major accomplishments as well as missteps of the government over the past few years.
(請試著列舉這幾年來台灣施政的重大缺失與具影響力的重大成就.)
Q3.Correlated with the economic recession, the fight between the parties has taken its toll on Taiwan's political outlook. What are the causes of conflict from your observation? Can these differences be reconciled to enable more cooperation in the future?
(相對於經濟的疲軟,國內的政治情勢長久以來也處於對立的狀態,請小組討論彙整主要原因,並試著分析是否可能逐一改善.)
Q4.Taiwan's China policy has always been a focal point for the parties. Do you think Taiwan is on the right path? What adjustments do we need when dealing with a growing China?
(大陸政策一向是國內各政黨重要的政見,依您的意見我們先前的方向正確嗎?目前方向如何? 將來對大陸的外交政策可能為何?會需要什麼樣調整?)
Suggested Question for Session II:
*What attributes do you think the future president will require? What kind of challenges will he/she possibly confront?
(未來總統候選人需要什麼樣的特質,將會面臨什麼挑戰?)
*Which candidate is more likely to win the coming presidential election in you opinion, and the reason?
(哪一組候選人比較可能出線當選? 原因為何?)
*Are there any options beyond independence from or reunification with China? Please brainstorm with your group. Any thoughts and innovative ideas are welcome.
(除了統一或獨立的選項之外,我們有第三條出路嗎? 歡迎提供不同想法與創意主張.)
*How do you think our next president should deal with the relations with the US? How can we maintain an effective and practical diplomacy?
(您認為下任總統應該如何處理與美國的關係?如何操作務實外交?)
*The democratic system has been successfully adopted and effectively run in Taiwan for years. However, it also presents many issues to the country such as vicious competition among political parties, inefficiency in generating decision/consensus, and hindrances on policy implementation.
Based on the current situation, do you think the people should be given more power over policy making or do they need to be reined in? Is there any chance that the party politics can be improved? How can we make it happen?
(台灣雖實行民主政治但仍有著施政效率不彰,政黨惡鬥與諸多問題,您覺得人民需要的是控管?還是放任? 政黨有無進步空間?如何進步?)
Recommended reading materials:
-Ahead of Taiwan elections, presidential candidate defends outreach to China
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... candidate/
-Taiwan and Strategic Security The U.S. declarative policy on Taiwan of “strategic ambiguity” needs to change sooner rather than later.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/taiwan-a ... -security/
-The Taiwan Problem: If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It. A grand bargain between the U.S. and China over Taiwan seems an ill-conceived idea.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/the-taiw ... nt-fix-it/
(The last paragraph, “No Panacea” is extracted as following.)
No Panacea
The concept of a U.S.-China grand bargain offers a creative attempt at a strategy to resolve some of the most intractable issues hindering improved cooperation between the two countries. Even if implemented, this proposed strategy would not serve as a panacea to all the issues facing the United States and China. Any bargain would face serious pitfalls that would cast doubt over the longevity of its provisions. In light of the contentious land disputes in the South China Sea and continuing tension over the unresolved question of Taiwan, an idealistic resolution might seem a productive step forward.
The Taiwan problem is deeply entrenched within China and Taiwan’s political culture and it cannot be solved in one fell swoop. A grand bargain is an encouraging, yet illusive notion. The framework of a grand bargain might serve as a useful blueprint for future cooperation, but the current status quo already acts as a positive foundation for future China-Taiwan relations and should remain in place.
As Taiwan’s March 2016 presidential election rapidly approaches, the concept of a grand bargain appears particularly ill-conceived. In all likelihood, neither party’s candidate will risk alienating public support by pushing a radical plan for unification or separation. Increased economic cooperation will continue to maintain the equilibrium between the two nations and could even mitigate the most contentious issues that bedevil U.S.-China and China-Taiwan relations. While it is possible that these issues may pose a future threat, the current Taiwan problem is not broken, and there is no need to fix it.
