1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Iris Wu » 週一 12月 25, 2017 11:14 am

SESSION I:
If you ask your co-workers how they perform in their tasks or how good they are in the group, you will be amazed to find out that more than half of the people in a group rate themselves on the top quartile (25%) which, as we know, is not mathematically possible.

Why people have inflated self-assessment? Why do incompetent people feel they are superior? Are incompetent people unable to recognize their own incompetence (or “Are the stupid too stupid to realize they are stupid”)? How smart do we need to be to understand we are stupid? These questions are not so sarcastic as they sound like. Two social psychologists, David Dunning and Justin Kruger actually studied and identified this kind of illusory superiority as a form of cognitive bias and later, the phenomenon was named the Dunning-Kruger Effect. They published a paper, “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessment” and won the Ig Nobel Prize, an award to honor achievements that first make people laugh, and then make them think.

It’s our first Saturday meeting of the year; hope we can somewhat laugh and think together on how to recognize and deal with our own intelligence and stupidity since Confucius taught us that “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.” :)

Reading/Listening Materials:
Questions for Discussion:
1. Why the “not-so-amazing” (incompetent, bumblers, underperformers) think they're amazing? Could you give some examples, such as political figures, celebrities in the entertainment industry, your co-workers or ourselves?

2. What causes the inflated self-assessment? Is it because of the surviving needs, false praise/compliments from others, people’s own stupidity or something else?

3. People like to stay in their cozy “echo chambers”, in this case how do we see clearly our own ignorance?

4. What are the differences between the Dunning-Kruger Effect, self-confidence and self-esteem? How do we prevent poor self-assessment, and in the meantime maintaining our self-confidence and self-esteem?

SESSION II:
In the second session, I’d like to discuss two masterminds behind the two complex businesses, Tesla (SpaceX, SolarCity, The Boring Company, etc.) and Amazon.com. [Notes: If it is too much to discuss both of them, we’ll just talk about Elon Musk in this session.]

First, “past performance is no guarantee of future results” as seen in most investment disclaimers, I don’t know if Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos will uphold their supremacy (status, reign) or if their businesses can sustain in next few decades, but the two masterminds behind their complex businesses and technological worlds seem to be worth exploring.

Reading & Listening Materials:
Questions for Discussion:
1. Which part of Elon Musk’s life inspires you the most? Why so?

2. Elon Musk said that “I am not sure I want to be me” in one of his interviews. Why do you think he said that?
(See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HPR8WDwWb0 )

3. What is “The First Principle’s Theory” (Elon Musk’s problem-solving method)?
(As explained in “How Elon Musk Solves Problems?” (4 min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grSdMoiMgb4 )
    a. What is “To reason from first principles rather than by analogy”?
    b. Give some examples that normal people like us “reason from analogy”.
    c. How Elon Musk uses “The First Principle’s method”?
    d. Have you ever analyzed your mental model for solving problems? What is it? What is the advantage and disadvantage of your problem-solving mental model?
    e. Would you consider Elon Musk’s method? How would you adopt it into your daily life?
Agenda:
3:45 ~ 4:00pm Greetings & Free Talk / Ordering Beverage or Meal / Getting Newcomer’s Information
4:00 ~ 4:10pm Opening Remarks / Newcomer’s Self-introduction / Grouping
(Session I)
4:10 ~ 4:50pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
4:50 ~ 5:10pm Summarization (20 mins)
5:10 ~ 5:20pm Regrouping / Instruction Giving / Taking a 10 Minutes Break (Intermission)
(Session II)
5:20 ~ 6:00pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
6:00 ~ 6:20pm Summarization (20 mins)
6:20 ~ 6:30pm Concluding Remarks / Announcements
********************************************************************************************************************************************
聚會日期:列於該貼文主題內
聚會時間:請準時 4:00 pm 到 ~ 約 6:30 pm 左右結束
星期六聚會地點:丹堤濟南店
地址、電話:台北市濟南路三段25號 地圖 (02) 2740-2350
捷運站:板南線 忠孝新生站 3 號出口
走法:出忠孝新生站 3 號出口後,沿著巷子(忠孝東路三段10巷)走約 2 分鐘,到了濟南路口,左轉走約 2 分鐘即可看到。
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Rock » 週一 12月 25, 2017 7:54 pm

Shoot, I knew it. My mom always said that I am smart. I knew there must be something wrong about it. :shock: :lol:
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Rock » 週一 12月 25, 2017 8:49 pm

I kind of wonder if the conclusion of the research would be the same here in China and Taiwan because of the culture difference. We always have cruel standardized tests telling people who are smart, mediocre or stupid, starting from a very tender age. We separate students into "good" and "bad" senior high schools; it's not likely that the kids in a "bad" senior-high school would be so confident about their intelligence, isn't it?

Maybe the Sino-population really is smarter than the Westerners because our stupid people are smart enough to know they are not smart, while the stupid American, thanks to their open and lively education, think they are not really stupid?
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Dan » 週一 12月 25, 2017 10:23 pm

Many of us Americans know we are stupid, Rock. It's the really stupid Americans--who believe everything Donald Trump tells them--who are too stupid to know how stupid they are. :D But that's okay. They only make up one-third of the country.
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Rock » 週二 12月 26, 2017 10:50 am

I guess Mr. Trump must think himself smart. :lol:

And Dan, it's a fact that the USA is the most advanced country on the planet, and there are a lot of smart Americans who built this great nation. I was only joking about the "stupid American" thing. Please forgive me if you found it offensive. That is a stupid joke from a stupid person.
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Dan » 週二 12月 26, 2017 11:56 am

Rock, I wasn't offended. After Trump was elected, I'm thinking you might be right. :wink:
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Rock » 週五 12月 29, 2017 10:00 am

:lol: :lol: Hey, you are super humorous. That's a good one.
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Iris Wu » 週一 1月 01, 2018 9:51 am

My husband just asked me if he is too stupid to know he is smart?
I guess I am in big trouble with this subject because I am too dumb to answer these "intelligent" questions! :roll:

Setting aside the joking part, the original thoughts for these subjects are:
1) To understand “Framing”
    (“In the social sciences, framing comprises a set of concepts and theoretical perspectives on how individuals, groups, and societies, organize, perceive, and communicate about reality.”)
2) People like to stay in their “echo chambers”, and “pick and choose the truths” that they want to believe in from this framework.
3) Is there “true truth, whole truth, nothing but the truth”?
4) How can we clarify the more objective truth and the truth that we chose to believe in and try to avoid the “framing trap”?
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Kooper » 週六 1月 06, 2018 11:21 am

Iris Wu 寫:My husband just asked me if he is too stupid to know he is smart?
I guess I am in big trouble with this subject because I am too dumb to answer these "intelligent" questions! :roll:

Yes Iris, you've put yourself in a jam. :mrgreen:
According to Dunning-Kruger effect, your husband Michael must be too brilliant to understand his genius. :wink:
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Kooper » 週六 1月 06, 2018 11:22 am

Iris Wu 寫:Setting aside the joking part, the original thoughts for these subjects are:
1) To understand “Framing”
    (“In the social sciences, framing comprises a set of concepts and theoretical perspectives on how individuals, groups, and societies, organize, perceive, and communicate about reality.”)
2) People like to stay in their “echo chambers”, and “pick and choose the truths” that they want to believe in from this framework.
3) Is there “true truth, whole truth, nothing but the truth”?
4) How can we clarify the more objective truth and the truth that we chose to believe in and try to avoid the “framing trap”?

I feel like being bombarded with more million dollar questions now......
Kooper
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Kooper » 週六 1月 06, 2018 11:43 am

Rock made a good point. We should first question whether Dunning-Kruger effect is a universal phenomenon. Studies that Dunning and Kruger made were mostly on Cornell students. There could be cultural or age bias in it. As a matter of fact, Steve Heine, a psychologist at the University of British Columbia, showed in another study that self-inflation tends to be more of a Western than a universal phenomenon.

Even if we only discuss this against a backdrop of United States, we cannot rule out the possibility of other causes to the Dunning-Kruger effect. Could it be possible that people in general, be them ignorant or highly-skilled, tends to view themselves as moderately above the average? This could also explain why the worst group of performers self-inflates themselves most and why the experts are self-deprecating.
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Luis Ko » 週六 1月 06, 2018 5:05 pm

If you are really interested in first principals thinking, the link below offers clear and good points for you to think about, in my opinion. :mrgreen:
https://jamesclear.com/first-principles
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Rock » 週日 1月 07, 2018 10:22 am

Yes, this article explains the first principle thinking in a simple and clear way. But I wonder if it's too simple.

In the case of the rocket making, he mentions that Musk found out the price of a rocket is expensive, and he told himself:
“Physics teaches you to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. So I said, okay, let’s look at the first principles. What is a rocket made of? Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, plus some titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. Then I asked, what is the value of those materials on the commodity market? It turned out that the materials cost of a rocket was around two percent of the typical price.”

OK, it sounds easy, but it's overly simplified to me. It's a common sense that raw materials are much cheaper, but not everyone can build a rocket or an iphone out of raw materials. I personally don't think it would work for me. Maybe I'm too stupid?
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Luis Ko » 週日 1月 07, 2018 10:27 pm

Rock 寫:Yes, this article explains the first principle thinking in a simple and clear way. But I wonder if it's too simple.

In the case of the rocket making, he mentions that Musk found out the price of a rocket is expensive, and he told himself:
“Physics teaches you to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. So I said, okay, let’s look at the first principles. What is a rocket made of? Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, plus some titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. Then I asked, what is the value of those materials on the commodity market? It turned out that the materials cost of a rocket was around two percent of the typical price.”

OK, it sounds easy, but it's overly simplified to me. It's a common sense that raw materials are much cheaper, but not everyone can build a rocket or an iphone out of raw materials. I personally don't think it would work for me. Maybe I'm too stupid?


totally agree!

of course, knowing it is one thing. practising it, or making use of it, is another. you are smart so that you know it's not that simple as it seems, and it might not work for you. in stead of those examples, to think for yourself and to think differently like you always do that's the point here i would say haa~ 8)
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
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Re: 1/6 Dunning-Kruger Effect & A Mastermind (Host: Iris)

文章Rock » 週日 1月 07, 2018 11:10 pm

Luis Ko 寫:... to think for yourself and to think differently like you always do that's the point here i would say...


I am kind of nervous to hear that me being "thinking differently" now. I didn't even notice that I think differently from others. Isn't everybody thinking differently from everybody? Am I really different? :shock: :cry:

I also agree with your points. We should always think for ourselves. (這句是我們該自我思考?還是我們該為自己著想?) Following others is one thing, following them blindly is another. However, the thin line between critical thinking and cynicism is not clear for me, so I guess sometimes I'm being cynical without knowing it. Announcing myself being a cynic is lacking originality because you've already patented it. Or may I share it with you? :shock:
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
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