Fun With Statistics - Science + Uncertainty 7/28 (Tue.) (Host: Tashi)

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tashi
Member
文章: 128
註冊時間: 週二 11月 03, 2015 11:07 pm

Fun With Statistics - Science + Uncertainty 7/28 (Tue.) (Host: Tashi)

文章 tashi »

Hello its my turn again acting the host and this time I am intrigued to discuss with you about statistics.

I would like to recommend you to spend 10 mins to watch this TED speak as an opening. There are some fun facts in his speech which I enjoyed with laughter.

Then I am also feel aspired by how the attorney general of U.S. reviewed the crime cases and instead of defeating by the frustrating facts in statistics, she used data science to improve the ecology of dealing with crime cases in the US.
Perhaps you could have another joyful 10 mins? As a result, to try to extend the points they've delivered, I try to design some questions for us to discuss:

Session I.

1. What did you feel after watching the first TED speech? Any result of statistics surprises or shocks you?

2. In the first TED speech, one of the points is that we could know where we live by some factors from statistics, Do you agree and think that is helpful?

3. According to the second TED speech, are we using data science well when dealing crime cases in our country? Or like she found in the US, most of time we use instinct and experience only to handle them? And expand this to common society issues/problems like drunk driving, car accidents and so on. Do you think we use statistics and logical inference to define and enforce policies and regulation in our communities, societies and country?

4. Indeed there is nothing can be always correct and statistics in nature is just a objective tool. Have you encounter any bad things caused by wrong use of statistics?

Session II.

The concept for conducting questions below was actually inspired by some stories in the book "Poor Economics" that revealed it is possible to do a big scale of good things without changing the corrupt or inefficient condition of governments in some countries. And how the economists found the tactics is also highly relevant to statistics.

however, rather than keep focusing on one community or one country or the earth, try to be more productive, let's me focus on ourselves.

1. Have you ever had any experience leveraging information from statistics to improve your life or something matters in your work field?

2. Recall your daily life, important or not, how often do you use statistics skill? And how deep it could be? For instance, perhaps some of you use median, sampling for some decision making.

3. If you believe your life is still getting better in some parts such as your professional skills, health condition, good mood, financial independence and so on, what are the key factors happen them continue to happen? Out of just personality or you also learned some sort of tactics/skills that could be useful for most of the public?

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Agenda:
6:45 ~ 7:00pm Greetings & Free Talk / Ordering Beverage or Meal / Getting Newcomer’s Information
7:00 ~ 7:10pm Opening Remarks / Newcomer’s Self-introduction / Grouping
(Session I)
7:00 ~ 7:40pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
7:40 ~ 7:55pm Summarization (15 mins)
7:55 ~ 8:0pm Regrouping / Instruction Giving / Taking a 5 Minutes Break (Intermission)
(Session II)
8:00 ~ 8:40pm Discussion Session (30 mins)
8:40 ~ 8:55pm Summarization and conclusion (15 mins)

********************************************************************************************************************************************
Meeting Date: As shown in the Subject Line
Meeting Time: 7:00pm – 9:00pm
Meeting Venue: 丹堤咖啡 Dante Coffee (Minimum Order $80)
Address: 台北市濟南路三段25號-捷運忠孝新生站3號出口步行3分鐘
Important Notes:
1. Participants are recommended to print out the questions for the discussion. Also, the supporting articles, if preferred not to access them via their own mobile phone.
2. Please read the articles and discussion questions provided by the host and write down your thoughts in English in advance.

For Newcomers:
1. Please prepare a two-to-three minute introduction of yourself in English. You may also be asked to give brief feedback at the conclusion of the meeting.
2. The entire meeting is conducted in English. All participants should at least have moderate English conversation skills and be able to articulate your ideas for each discussion question.
3. Newcomers are welcome to attend the meeting and join the discussion up to three times. Formal membership with a lifetime membership fee NT$1000 is required afterward.
Janice Wang
YOYO member
文章: 74
註冊時間: 週六 3月 25, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: Fun With Statistics - Science + Uncertainty 7/28 (Tue.) (Host: Tashi)

文章 Janice Wang »

Today, more than ever, we are being swamped by a massive influx of information and data on every aspect of our daily life. How accurate and reliable are they? Where are they from, and how are they found? Are they beneficial or detrimental to us? Those questions open the door for statistics to enter the stage and play a vital role in guiding and shaping the world in which we live.

Now, let’s look at what instances of statistics there are in our everyday life. It will amaze us how essential statistics are and how they help us become more informative in our decision-making.
->weather forecast-related examples: statistics provide information on how to wear, what to bring with us, trip plans, emergency preparedness, etc.
->transportation-related examples: the schedule and waiting time for public transportation and flights, GPS guiding, the availability of parking lots, etc.
->health and daily essentials-related examples: the rating of products, restaurants, online shopping, physicians, and clinics, the reviews of customers, daily nutrition intake of vitamins and food, the ratio of the ingredients of a recipe, etc.
->entertainment-related examples: the ranking and rating of movies, tv shows, sports, video games, and books.
->money-related examples: house mortgage, oil consumption of cars, the premium of private insurance, the investment of stock, commodities and foreign currency, the interest rate of saving, etc.

The applications of statistics are inconceivable, not to mention those fields that beyond the reach of an ordinary, namely astronomy, criminology, physics, chemistry, psychology, biology, etc.. With such a far-reaching impact, it also makes statistics available to someone who seizes a unique window of opportunity to twist and manipulate information in favor of a malicious interest; e.g. political calculations, the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers, Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal, and Volkswagen emissions scandal, etc.. Those notorious scandals echo a quote of Mark Twain, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Living in a new technological era during which there is no part of the world that statistics are not applicable. Statistics not only assist us in predicting the future, realizing the happenings of the present, and unearthing the past but also equipping us with more informative knowledge to counter unpredictable changes. It is unbelievable that even death can’t do us part from statistics as it would affect demographic mortality rates, the cause of the mortality, and the prediction of the disease, etc. No exit from statistics forever and ever!
Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 729
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: Fun With Statistics - Science + Uncertainty 7/28 (Tue.) (Host: Tashi)

文章 Iris Wu »

A nice follow-up session after our reading of “Factfulness”!
The first speech reminds us many similar misperceptions illustrated in the “Factfulness”.
Statistics is sometimes just a number, but to interpret the meanings behind the statistics requires much more analytical skills.

The second speech is about data and analytics. The speaker started her speech by describing some very outdated practice in the law enforcement agencies and criminal justice offices in earlier days. It probably all sounds very familiar for analytical system professionals.

The growth of data analytics is closely related to technology. As technology advances, the ever-improving storage capacity and processing power are finally able to manage the complex text and image data, which are main data formats in law enforcement and criminal justice systems. These types of data are much more difficult to process and analyze than financial data in business world.

What the speaker requested was a criminal justice decision support system. What she said might sound simple, but it’s actually not easy to build. For example, how do we define behavior patterns and decide which criminal is likely to make crime again? In late 1990’s, we had a project to build a “serial killer database” for a state bureau of investigation. It would have been a bit easier if we had had Big Data and AI algorithms in our toolbox back then.

But even with today’s technology, I am still wondering how reliable the current systems are. Data analytics is supposedly neutral, but since it is designed by human beings, people are inevitably biased, so the analysis is possible to carry the same prejudice. Technology definitely helps, but data analytics system for criminal justice may still need human intervention.
Luis Ko
YOYO member
文章: 918
註冊時間: 週三 6月 06, 2007 10:18 pm

Re: Fun With Statistics - Science + Uncertainty 7/28 (Tue.) (Host: Tashi)

文章 Luis Ko »

one of the speeches mentioned this, "We can be blind to the obvious" -- so we've got the numbers wrong -- "but we can be blind to our blindness about it." And that has enormous repercussions for decision making.

right, it's said lie, damn lie, and statistics. that's the first thing came to my mind when seeing the topic. that's why i quote the above sentences. actually some of our preconceptions come from misinformation. statistics is one of them. we can be blind to the reality because we've got the numbers wrong - because statistics lies. and we can be totally blind to our blindness about it. and that has enormous repercussions for our decision making. at the end of the day, it all depends on how statistics are made and, if we are smart enough to interpret it lo~ 8)
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
tashi
Member
文章: 128
註冊時間: 週二 11月 03, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Fun With Statistics - Science + Uncertainty 7/28 (Tue.) (Host: Tashi)

文章 tashi »

Thanks for all of your insightful comments.

In one book I bought online called "The Art Of Logic". The author mentioned that a lot of people doesn't know how to benefit from using logic and the point is not just being "logic" but being "logic + beneficial". I feel like I got similar issue about "statistics" in the same way.
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