10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

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David Jr.
Vice President
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註冊時間: 週二 8月 19, 2003 12:07 am
來自: Lonely Planet
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10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 David Jr. »

Hello everyone,

Have you heard of “End of History Illusion” before?
Let's talk about this phenomenon on 10/23 (Sat.) Come and join us.

According to Wikipedia, it's a psychological illusion in which individuals of all ages believe that they have experienced significant personal growth and changes in tastes up to the present moment, but will not substantially grow or mature in the future.

This term was first shown in a 2013 journal article. For those who like to know more about this research and happen to have plenty of time, you can click on the link: https://wjh-www.harvard.edu/~dtg/Quoidb ... 202013.pdf
(Actually you don't need to)
I here cited the first & second paragraphs of this article.
At every stage of life, people make decisions that profoundly influence the lives of the people they will become— and when they finally become those people, they aren’t always thrilled about it. Young adults pay to remove the tattoos that teenagers paid to get, middle-aged adults rush to divorce the people whom young adults rushed to marry, and older adults visit health spas to lose what middle-aged adults visited restaurants to gain. Why do people so often make decisions that their future selves regret?

One possibility is that people have a fundamental misconception about their future selves. Time is a powerful force that transforms people’s preferences, reshapes their values, and alters their personalities, and we suspect that people generally underestimate the magnitude of those changes. In other words, people may believe that who they are today is pretty much who they will be tomorrow, despite the fact that it isn’t who they were yesterday. In the studies we describe here, we showed that people expect to change little in the future, despite knowing that they have changed a lot in the past, and that this tendency bedevils their decision-making. We call this tendency to underestimate the magnitude of future change the “end of history illusion.


You can also watch the following video to learn more.
Video: How much will you change in the future? More than you think - Bence Nanay
Questions for Session 1:
1. How much have you changed?
1a. Please share your experience with change in Personality traits / Values / Preferences in the past decade.
1b. Is the change you have experienced for the better, or for the worse?

2. Are you the kind of person who embrace or even enjoy the change? Why or why not?

3. What triggered the change in the past decade?

Questions for Session 2:
4. Can you imagine what kind of person you will become in 10 years from now?
Your teammates are welcomed to help.

5. Is there any way or strategy that helps you transform into the kind of person you desire to be?

6. Jeff Bezos once said "I very frequently get the question: "What's going to change in the next 10 years?" I almost never get the question: "What's not going to change in the next 10 years?"
6a. In personal level, is there any part of you that has not changed in the past decade or decades?
6b. Why hasn't it changed?


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Agenda:
3:45 ~ 4:00pm Greetings & Free Talk / Ordering Beverage or Meal / Getting Newcomer’s Information
4:00 ~ 4:10pm Opening Remarks / Newcomer’s Self-introduction / Grouping
(Session I)
4:10 ~ 4:30pm Introduction and preparation
4:30~4:50 VR practice with English speaking 1
4:50 ~ 5:00pm Regrouping / Instruction Giving / Taking a 10 Minutes Break (Intermission)
(Session II)
5:10 ~ 5:20 Introduction and preparation
5:20 ~ 5:40 pm Group discussion
5:40~6:10 VR practice with English speaking 2&3
6:00 ~ 6:20pm Sharing (20 mins)
6:20 ~ 6:30pm Concluding Remarks / Announcements

Meeting Date: As shown on the Subject Line
Meeting Time: 4:00pm – 6:30pm
Meeting Venue: 丹堤咖啡 Dante Coffee (Minimum Order $80)
Address: 台北市濟南路三段25號[MAP]-捷運忠孝新生站3號出口步行3分鐘

Important Notes:
1. Newcomers should prepare a two-to-three minute self-introduction in English to deliver when called upon by the host before the start of the discussion. The host may also ask you to give brief feedback about the meeting at the conclusion of the meeting.
2. We conduct the entire meeting in English. All participants should have at least moderate English-conversation skills and be able to articulate your ideas for each discussion question.
Remember all what your mom has told you, and do the opposite.
Kooper
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文章: 2658
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Kooper »

Accepting the existence of End of History Illusion will inevitably put us in a dilemma: it takes the wind out of our sails when it comes to making any long-term commitment, which happen to be part and parcel of many major life decisions.

If we are no longer sure about whether our crush on a partner or our love for kids is going to last forever, how could we be confident of entering into a marriage or having our own child? 10,000-hour rule says that the key to achieve true expertise in any skill is a matter of intensive practice for at least 10,000 hours. That usually amounts to 10 years of work. Long-lasting passion for a particular subject doesn't seem to be the norm in the eyes of the End-of-History-Illusion believers.

Many financial decisions are also very long term. Duration of a mortgage sits at somewhere between 20 to 40 years. When I bought life insurances in my early 30s, I thought it's a no-brainer: With "only" 20 years of payment, I get insured for the rest of life. What’s even better is that the financial safety nets took into effect the moment I sign the contracts; Isn’t it a type of buy-now-pay-latter service that makes us feel good? Now many years have passed, and I have started thinking about early retirement. Sadly, I haven’t paid off all the insurance that I promised to pay. That ended up becoming one of the obstacles of my early retirement.
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Rock
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註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Rock »

When David says that he doesn't go deep, he actually goes very deep. And this topic is one of the deepest thinking that he goes. It made me rethink of my life. Am I heading on the right way that I want? Of course it's always uncertain, but it seems even more uncertain now.

I have to agree with Jobs: It's impossible to connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. There is a major decision I need to make in 4 years. I hope this meeting and people there can help me make it easier. :)
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
Michael-liu
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註冊時間: 週五 4月 24, 2009 6:09 pm

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Michael-liu »

I am curious about how much our club will change in the future. Will it last forever until we all die or it will fall apart at certain point of time? Nobody can predict the future.

Also, is the democratic system the end of histry as the professor 福山 claimed? I personally guess not. We wait and see how China will develop and how governments might force people to raise children in the future.
Kooper
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註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Kooper »

The idea of decentralization behind block-chains is expanding its application step by step, from cryptocurrency, de-Fi to de-App for instance. I believe someday it will extend to politics and create a new form of political system that's beyond our imagination. By then People might call it something like de-Po?
Luis Ko
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註冊時間: 週三 6月 06, 2007 10:18 pm

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Luis Ko »

Kooper 寫:
週六 10月 23, 2021 8:41 am
If we are no longer sure about whether our crush on a partner or our love for kids is going to last forever, how could we be confident of entering into a marriage or having our own child?


right, marriage/ relationship could be a vivid example to prove the existence of the end of history illusion, if i may say so. 8)
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
Luis Ko
YOYO member
文章: 955
註冊時間: 週三 6月 06, 2007 10:18 pm

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Luis Ko »

Rock 寫:
週六 10月 23, 2021 11:50 am
There is a major decision I need to make in 4 years. I hope this meeting and people there can help me make it easier.
if you need any consultation, we can have a cup of coffee, or a beer later haa~ :lol:
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
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Rock
YOYO member
文章: 2025
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Rock »

Sure, beer it is. :drink:
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
Luis Ko
YOYO member
文章: 955
註冊時間: 週三 6月 06, 2007 10:18 pm

Re: 10/23(Sat.) The end of history illusion (Host: David)

文章 Luis Ko »

Michael-liu 寫:
週六 10月 23, 2021 12:40 pm
is the democratic system the end of histry as the professor 福山 claimed?
of course not, since the topic says "end of history" is just an illusion. :lol:

seriously, since we are only human, of course not i would say. 8)
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
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