4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

[Leon]

China has also printed lots of money and owned lots of debt and their stock market looks very bad recently.

China's wealth gap is even worse than U.S and they try to do 平均富裕 which is an interesting idea.

China's semiconductor industry(this is a critical technology nowadays) is far behind many countries

Of course, they do not have internal conflict because their government wont make this happen.

Long time ago, I see lots of elite of Chinese study abroad and do whatever they can to stay U.S. forever and none of them is willing back to China. I do not see this trend is changing.
Innovation is a crucial index for changing the world order and country need to attract elite from all over the world and those top people prefer staying free and livable place and that refill innovation energy.

From above, I do not see any sign that China will catch up U.S.

[Iris Wu]

From above, I do not see any sign that China will catch up U.S.

Good points, Leon!
Larry Summers got a similar conclusion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cosZ4lAj_I (See this interview at around 26:00.)

Some questions:
1) National debt, sometimes isn't really a problem. The testimony should be:
-- Where did the debt go?
-- What products (productivity) this "debt" creates?
-- Is inflation managed and controlled (due to the "debt monetarization")?

I would say if all the above "attachments" coming with the "national debt" are taken care of, then the national debt may be "good debt". I forgot which lady economic professor mentioned, that kind of national debt goes back to people and the society, it wasn't a true debt, or you can say it is like an investment and the return is bigger than the investment (debt).
So, are there differences between the US national debt and China's national debt?

2) China's inequality is worse than the one in the U.S.
That may be true and that's why they need to deal with it even more urgently, isn't it?
And they see the results of "inaction" in Western capitalism, so they have to do something. I don't mean Xi's "common prosperity" is the answer, but I feel the struggle of human beings. I cannot tell if the leaders are struggling for their own survival or for an entity/country collectively, but I may be willing to give them a bit more time to try out something before I conclude it.

[Rock]

To prevent our discussion falls into a blue-green fight-like debate, I'd like to point out one thing: it's clear that our government and the larger population in Taiwan has chosen the US side. We all hope this is the right decision with good outcome. We all hope Taiwan can be great again, and China goes back to what it was like 20 or 30 years ago with less threat to us.

But, will it come true?

Hopefully, Taiwan, may have bet on the right side. There were challengers, USSR and Japan, and America beat them with no problem. I think the US will also beat China this time because it still has many advantages. However, denying problems and being complacent is not one of them.

Most importantly-- nothing lasts forever. America will fall. As of how and when, no one is sure.

[Kooper]

3. Why have the three monetary policies, lower short-term interest rate, lower long-term interest rate, and the “debt monetization”, become problematic to the US? What will be the full impact of these money and credit policies on the rise and fall of an empire?

Both lower interest rates, be them short-term or long-term, and the printing of more money, without the back of equally growing productivity, lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar as well as its buying power. That in turn will endanger the US dollar’s position as the world’s dominant reserve currency in the long run because no individuals and countries would like to keep a currency that is at risk of losing its value quickly.

[Kooper]

1. According to the author’s study of major historical transitions in the past 500 years, what are the three forces that drove the previous empires (Netherland, British, etc.) to decline? Do you see they are happening simultaneously now?

The three forces are: (1)When an empire has been so heavily indebted that they can no longer find new lenders to finance its operation, instead of defaulting on debts it chooses to print a lot of new money. The empire starts to print a lot of new money to deal with its serious debt problems. (2)Internal conflicts between the rich and the poor and between political parties are worsening within the empire in consequence of widening wealth gap and deteriorating living standards for most people. (3)External conflicts between the empire and the 2nd most powerful country are continually rising.

[Luis Ko]

"Anyone who can think clearly and logically would easily realize that Chinese political system is better than the Western political system for Chinese."

totally agree!!

it's said there is no one-size-fits-all approach. this also applies to political system. anyone who can think clearly and logically would never ask China to implement "western political system", or at least not now i would say. can people imagine if China, a country with 1,400,000,000 population, had adopted so-called western democracy, what kind of situation would China have been today????

political system is a way to manage a country, and serve their own people. it's not to meet U.S. and western world's standards. every country has its own problems. to ask China to adopt western standard or American standard to solve its problems is just nonsense. western governments can't even use their political system to solve the problems of their own chaotic society, why do people want China to do the same?? China is using its own way to make the country and the people's life better now, though the result still remains to be seen. one thing is for sure, China has launched their own crewed spacecraft. if China will catch up with U.S. in any way? that's really anyone's guess lo~

[Rock]

totally agree!!

I disagree.

I disagree with this one so that I can disagree with that one from Michael. I assume that people who can think clearly and logically wouldn't make an easy conclusion on either of the two statements. But then again, it's only my assumption. The final verdict has to be done by someone who can think clearly and logically. Now, whose turn?

[Rock]

Ooops! I was replying Michael's post then something happened and it's gone. I don't know what wrong it is.

[Iris Wu]

Ooops! I was replying Michael's post then something happened and it's gone. I don't know what wrong it is.

Is it possible Michael deleted his post?
That’s the only scenario I can think of.

But I am totally confused now. So who disagreed with whom on what?

[Rock]

Yes, it's confusing to disagree with someone's disagreement. It may implying that it's not easy to think clearly and logically.

[Michael-liu]

Yes, I deleted the post, because I am always blunt, and sometimes I am worried I may offend people. Sorry for the confusion. I hereby put on my original post as below.

I know the first half of the sentence I quoted sounds cocky and insulting. Now let's take it out. “ Western political system is the enemy of autocratic regimes, not the enemy of the general public” Agree or disagree？

BTW, Rock, I am glad to know that you don't support Chinese political system, although I am not sure whether you say it from the bottom of your heart. (•‿•)

[Rock]

BTW, Rock, I am glad to know that you don't support Chinese political system, although I am not sure whether you say it from the bottom of your heart. (•‿•)

I said that "I don't really support it." which doesn't mean "I really don't support it."

[Michael-liu]

[quote=Rock post_id=34187

I said that "I don't really support it." which doesn't mean "I really don't support it."
[/quote]

It's OK. ”don't really support it” is good enough for me. Haha

[Rock]

...“ Western political system is the enemy of autocratic regimes, not the enemy of the general public” Agree or disagree？

Disagree.

Let's have an easy one-- China. Does the general public in China see their autocratic government the enemy? Do they prefer the Western political system?
https://www.theatlantic.com/china/archi ... cy/277885/

If China doesn't work. We will have Singapore on the table. Tell any Singaporean how our Western political system in Taiwan is better than his country's autocratic system and they should learn from us. You sure will have the answer.

Again, if you ask a Chinese if he envies that we have a wonderful female president from our own choice, I guess he will burst into laughter.