4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 894
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Iris Wu »

Why do I choose this topic?
I came across this animated video, “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8), which was just posted in early March, but it has attracted over 7M viewers, and the view count is still growing. It’s kind of unimaginable to me given the fact that the subject is in the category out of favor. Another reason, since we’ve had quite a few self-reflection meetings lately, such as “How to want less” and “Play the hand you’re dealt”, maybe it’s time for a change. I think we can take a crack at “world history”! :)

What is the book all about in a nutshell?
The theory is really nothing new. A country (or an empire as called in the book) has its life cycle, just like any individual person; it would all go through the stages of “birth, aging, sickness, and death”. An empire goes through “the rise, the top, and the decline”, the so-called “arc of history”. The author delves into the last 500 years of history to identify the critical health indicators of a rising power and explores the signs of a declining empire.

We happen to live in a time where we may witness a transition of changing world order. The land we stand on may likely be a “battleground” for any type of competition between the two superpowers. I have no strength and wish to conduct political debates, but I was motivated by the two strategic thinkers, Ray Dalio and Henry Kissinger, to brush up on my knowledge of history. The two titans of thinking seem to recognize the trend and try to find solutions to ease the conflicts, if at all possible.

Reference Materials
Videos:
1) Introducing my New Book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order | Ray Dalio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpZ3dxAcvDM (3 min)
2) The summary video: It's Starting: The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio (23 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgJpKl9SVGU

[Alternatively, you can watch the original one, but it's much longer:
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order (43 min)


Articles:
1) What Is the Gold Standard? (a short article)
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the- ... rd-3306136
2) What Is a Reserve Currency? (a short article)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... rrency.asp
3) Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail: A book review by Craig R. Roach
https://www.nyjournalofbooks.com/book-r ... ging-world
[Excerpt for Q3]:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UBP ... sp=sharing
[Excerpt for Q4]:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ubu ... sp=sharing


Questions for Discussion
Session I: The Decline of an Empire
1. What is the “Big Cycle”? According to the author’s study of major historical transitions in the past 500 years, what are the three forces that drove the previous empires (Netherland, British, etc.) to decline? Do you see they are happening simultaneously now?
(Reference Video #1)

2. What is the gold standard? What is the reserve currency? How did the U.S. Dollar become the World’s Reserve Currency? Why did the US abandon the gold standard in 1971? What were the impacts of the gold-to-dollar decoupling?
(Reference short articles #1 & #2)

3. Why have the three monetary policies, lower short-term interest rate, lower long-term interest rate, and the “debt monetization”, become problematic to the US? What will be the full impact of these money and credit policies on the rise and fall of an empire?

Session II: The Rising Powers and Conflicts
4. The author is unique in his explanations of the differences in philosophy for the two superpowers:
America is run from the bottom up (e.g., democracy) and optimized for the individual; China is run from the top down and optimized for the collective.
What are the differences between these two styles? Which one will work better in your opinion? [Excerpt #4]

5. According to Ray Dalio, what are the 8 key determinants of wealth and power? Where do the US and China stand in terms of these measures?
圖檔


6. (Bonus question) Do you agree that China's rise will become the next superpower/empire or do you think it is exaggerated as the Soviet Union was said during the Cold War and Japan in the 1990s? Why?

Agenda:
3:45 ~ 4:00pm Greetings & Free Talk / Ordering Beverage or Meal / Getting Newcomer’s Information
4:00 ~ 4:10pm Opening Remarks / Newcomer’s Self-introduction / Grouping
(Session I)
4:10 ~ 4:50pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
4:50 ~ 5:10pm Summarization (20 mins)
5:10 ~ 5:15pm Regrouping / Instruction Giving / Taking a 10 Minutes Break (Intermission)
(Session II)
5:15 ~ 5:55pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
6:00 ~ 6:20pm Summarization (20 mins)
6:20 ~ 6:30pm Concluding Remarks / Announcements


Meeting Date: As shown on the Subject Line
Meeting Time: 4:00pm – 6:30pm
Meeting Venue: 丹堤咖啡 Dante Coffee (Minimum Order $100)
Address: 台北市濟南路三段25號[MAP]-捷運忠孝新生站3號出口步行3分鐘

Important Notes:
1. We advise participants to print out the discussion questions and bring them to the meeting for reference. As for the supporting articles, feel free to print them out, as well, according to your preference.
2. We suggest that participants read the articles and think about the questions in advance.
3. Newcomers should prepare a two-to-three minute self-introduction in English to deliver when called upon by the host before the start of the discussion. The host may also ask you to give brief feedback about the meeting at the conclusion of the meeting.
4. We conduct the entire meeting in English. All participants should have at least moderate English-conversation skills and be able to articulate your ideas for each discussion question.
5. We welcome newcomers and other guests to attend the meetings and join the discussion freely for two times. After that, we hope you will consider becoming a YoYo English Club member. We charge a NT$1500 lifetime membership fee, or NT$1000 for students.
頭像
Rock
YOYO member
文章: 2162
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) Principles to Deal with the Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Rock »

The concept of this imperial life circle thing is convincingly backed up by evidence. The discovery is shocking, too. The easy and funny way it delivers the knowledge make me want to watch it again, and I am doing it now.

Just wonder what an American would react when he sees that his country is called an empire and may be falling one day. :lol:
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 894
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Iris Wu »

There may be a debate if America is an Empire, but the majority of Americans probably have their own definition of a modern empire and they may not care too much about the term, "American Empire", but many of them probably do not like to hear that the American Empire is “in decline”, same as in Taiwan and many other countries, right? The statement is not “patriotic” and not welcome. You need to pluck up the courage to do so.
頭像
Rock
YOYO member
文章: 2162
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Rock »

Google showed me someone courageous.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ww ... ine/tnamp/
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
頭像
Rock
YOYO member
文章: 2162
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Rock »

In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
Michael-liu
YOYO member
文章: 708
註冊時間: 週五 4月 24, 2009 6:09 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Michael-liu »

About Q4, which one will work better?This is a big and tough question. It depends on “better” in what way and on what human beings really want. Do people want a prosperous and wealthy life only?social justice?freedom of all kinds?a life with dignity?

I happened to see a comment online by a netizen the other day. It is written in Chinese and I hereby translate it to English as my standing and my answer to Q4.

“Anyone who can think clearly and logically would easily realize that the Western political system is the enemy of autocratic regime, and not the enemy of the general public. ”
頭像
Rock
YOYO member
文章: 2162
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Rock »

Michael-liu 寫:
週五 4月 01, 2022 3:07 am

“Anyone who can think clearly and logically would easily realize that the Western political system is the enemy of autocratic regime, and not the enemy of the general public. ”
This kind of contention is not easy to reproduce. Let me try it. "Anyone who can think clearly and logically would easily realize that Chinese political system is better than the Western political system for Chinese." :lol:
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 894
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Iris Wu »

Well said, both of you!

Michael's statement is kind of in line with the “Western political system is optimized for the individual”. I am sure the “general public” loves the unconstrained freedom, but what is the price attached?

Great power comes with great responsibility. How about great freedom? Great discipline and great mutual respect need to be planted, but they fade out easily.

We do need solutions to solve the big gap of inequality that comes from the optimization of the individual. Now, it is valid to give serious thought to the solution of achieving common prosperity.
Janice Wang
YOYO member
文章: 79
註冊時間: 週六 3月 25, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Janice Wang »

For Iris’s meetings, I often go on a wing and a prayer. The upcoming meeting makes no exception! Not intended to sugarcoat how much effort I have dedicated to reading & listening to most of the materials; however, I am still out of touch with my ability to tackle those well-designed questions; in particular, those extended questions. I figure the host might sense a feeling in parallel with the saying, you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.

Here are some of my afterthoughts on such an informative topic:
1) Since the meeting with the topic, Thucydides’s Trap dated back on 04/30’19, I am under the impression that to the Americans; it is a matter of their own making of the glory and the problem as a hegemony, for better or for worse. With this very book, I now firmly believe that the US can’t unring a bell but answer the call of the “Big Cycle”!

2) For a superpower to emerge and last long enough, it requires close collaboration between the financial, political, and military strengths. Question #4 triggers a whole slew of other questions — How important of a role does the political system play in the transpiring of a superpower? Has the American democracy gone wrong or deteriorated, which renders the potential superpower takeover by China? Has the Chinese tweaked its political ideology to move up the top? Will an individual give in one’s freedom for the good of one’s country as the Chinese do?

3) If history repeats itself over the next changing world order, the impending question is when and how. Will Taiwan be a pawn in the plot? With modern geopolitical realities and tensions, our incumbent government seems to prefer not playing second fiddle by displaying the outpouring of faithful compliance and cordial support for the US. Hope we will never have to face the test of how faithful we are to each other when the US encounters the happening of the changing world order head on!

I seemed to have answered none of Iris’s questions at all, but baffled myself with more questions that only time can tell! I can’t help but expect that our meeting can turn into a lecture instead so I can offload the pressure as an attendee of the meeting! Well, luckily, there is a gathering after the meeting! I am all over in a party mood! Chill & Cheers!!
最後由 Janice Wang 於 週一 4月 04, 2022 9:50 am 編輯,總共編輯了 4 次。
頭像
Rock
YOYO member
文章: 2162
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Rock »

Iris Wu 寫:
週五 4月 01, 2022 9:37 am
Well said, both of you!
I guess you've got me wrong. I don't really support Chinese system. My focus is on the problem of the first half of the statements.

That is to say, I was trying to be picky on Michael. :lol:
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
Kooper
YOYO member
文章: 2725
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Kooper »

Thanks Iris for introducing this book to us. It's a great topic to learn. I would really want to read through the book down the line, if possible, to get more insight and prepare myself better for the possibly volatile future.

I'm still in the middle of digesting all the materials, but it has become crystal clear that gearing myself up for the meeting within one or two hours is nearly impossible. The 43-minute video clip alone is overwhelming, not to mention other reference articles... I would suggest that we use the 23-minute one as primary material rather than alternative one. Just my two cents.
Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 894
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Iris Wu »

Kooper 寫:
週五 4月 01, 2022 11:22 am
... I would suggest that we use the 23-minute one as primary material rather than alternative one. Just my two cents.
Point taken. I've updated the post to make the summary video the main choice, but I like the snapshot of the original screen, so I keep it in the alternative.

I'll write my feedback to Janice soon! Big Thanks! :)
Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 894
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Iris Wu »

First, I must acknowledge all the feedback and comments; your inputs, thoughts, and jokes are very much appreciated. They brighten up my day!

To be frank, I kind of regret I picked this topic because it is totally out of my comfort zone. I don’t have answers to these questions, monetary policies, international history and politics are not my strong suit. Choosing this topic is purely inspired by the passion of the author.

Janice summed up her thoughts and questions beautifully, and she is right that only time can answer many of these questions. Even the US political titans, Henry Kissinger or Larry Summers (Ex-Director of the National Economic Council) are not necessarily on the same page as the author regarding rising China.

Let’s relax. The bad news is you still need to suffer before the party, but the good news is that the meeting will be ended half an hour earlier. I am sure your pain and suffering will be compensated by the after-party! :)
stephen185
YOYO member
文章: 206
註冊時間: 週三 5月 30, 2007 8:23 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 stephen185 »

Although the big cycle for those empires does not apply to Taiwan, some of the phenomena described along the path can be observed in our country. For example, as people earn more in a "richer Taiwan" than before, they become less competitive compared to people in other countries who are willing to work for less. Meanwhile, people in other not-so-rich countries start to copy the technologies from us, which will further reduce Taiwan's competitiveness.

In addition, values change from generation to generation during the rise of Taiwan (the 70s-90s) to the present, "from those who had to fight to achieve wealth and power to those who inherited it. The young generation nowaday appear to be less battle heartened and accustomed to the easy life, which makes them more vulnerable to challenges." (According to the Taipei Times, more than 40 percent of the students unexpectedly said "lie down flat" when vice President William Lai (賴清德) asked the 140 students in attendance what kind of person they wanted to be during the speech he gave at the "future- southern-youth" forum organized by the National Cheng Kung University (NCKU) Graduate Student Association in March this year.)

Furthermore, the naturally uneven financial gains increases the wealth gap as the economy grows. And "rich people use their greater resources to reinforce their powers, giving greater privileges to their children, such as better education, and influence the political system towards their advantage, which causes the gaps in values, politics, and opportunities to grow between the rich "haves" and the poor "have-nots"."

All of the above happened before the empires entered into the decline stage. Should we be worried that Taiwan could follow the same cycle as well?
Iris Wu
YOYO member
文章: 894
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: 4/2 (Sat.) The Changing World Order (Host: Iris)

文章 Iris Wu »

stephen185 寫:
週五 4月 01, 2022 6:01 pm
All of the above happened before the empires entered into the decline stage. Should we be worried that Taiwan could follow the same cycle as well?
I thought about this and the Q5 was originally designed to ask where the US and Taiwan stand in terms of the 8 key determinants of wealth and power. Taiwan cannot be called an empire, but the “Big Cycle” theory does apply to most entities.

I am not sure if we are still experiencing growing pain or we have been stuck on a plateau, or we are on the opposite side of rising? It’s a mix, I guess. We don’t seem to have troublesome public debt (yet, or not something I am aware of), but we do have serious internal conflicts. Education and culture (the adventurous, risk-taking spirit) are probably on the falling side, too. Fortunately, our competitiveness still holds its ground to some extent.

The 8 key determinants of wealth and power are good health indicators, and they should be measured more precisely. Leaders in a country should really pay attention and do regular health checkups.

What I observed is that for any entity, if the oversight system is healthy, then the entity is normally rising, but once the oversight system fails to work, the entity tends to go down the hill. A two-party democratic system, ideally, should work, but once the oversight function is compromised, then, we can expect the entity to be chaotic or corrupted fairly soon.
回覆文章