Articles on US Presidential Election

Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週四 2月 11, 2016 8:56 pm

Dear YoYoers,

I would like to use this thread to post several articles on the ongoing presidential campaign in the US, discuss words and expressions being used and the election itself a little bit. Please feel free to share articles here yourselves if you find any interesting ones. :D
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週四 2月 11, 2016 10:07 pm

What About Ted Cruz?
(Quoted from NYT http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/opinion/campaign-stops/what-about-ted-cruz.html?emc=edit_ty_20160210&nl=opinion&nlid=59393702)

Despite Donald Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, what is the chance that Republicans will nominate Ted Cruz and that he will go on to win the presidency?

The website ElectionBettingOdds gives Cruz a 14.5 percent chance of winning the nomination — his victory in the Iowa caucuses and a third place showing in New Hampshire notwithstanding. It puts his chances of actually winning the presidency at 4.3 percent.

But let’s say Cruz beats the odds and wins the nomination. One of the most conservative members of the Senate, Cruz would test the argument made by leaders of the hard right that Republicans have lost four of the last six presidential elections because their candidates were insufficiently conservative ...

There is an unusual degree of consensus on the intensity of Cruz’s conservatism among experts in campaigns, elections and partisan polarization. I asked Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory, just how conservative Cruz is. Abramowitz replied:

Cruz’s positions are on the far right of the Republican Party today, which would certainly place him far to the right of past conservative leaders like Reagan or Gingrich during his years as Speaker. In fact, his voting record is among the 2 or 3 most consistently conservative in the Senate. He is very conservative on every issue dimension: economic policy, social policy and national security/foreign policy. He is running on that record — emphasizing his purity compared with his rivals.

Cruz’s nomination would turn the general election in November into an almost perfect test of the viability of a pure conservative ...

During his three years in Washington, Cruz has earned an unprecedented level of animosity from elites on both the left and right. What is really stunning to a longtime observer of Washington is the number of reputable people who have brutally criticized Cruz on the record. The New Republic recently published an extraordinary collection of anti-Cruz quotes that runs from the left through the center to the right. His colleagues are on record as hating him — hate may be too mild a description. First and foremost, he has angered virtually everyone he works with, especially his fellow Republican senators ...

Cruz, more than any of the other Republican presidential candidates, including Trump, is ideally suited to mobilize every Democratic constituency, including single women, minorities, young voters and socially liberal professionals ...

Cruz’s appeal is restricted to core Republican constituencies, most of which are in decline as a percentage of the electorate ...

Even if Cruz were to lick the 20-1 odds against him and win the presidency, his ability to accomplish any of his policy objectives would be severely constrained not only by Democrats but also by the legions of Republicans who hold him in contempt ...
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週四 2月 11, 2016 11:31 pm

to hold someone in contempt: to dislike someone and think that they deserve no respect

Notwithstanding something / Something notwithstanding: despite the thing mentioned
Ex: Notwithstanding her victory, Tsai needs to be pragmatic on relations with Beijing http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/talkingturkey/taiwan-election-verdict-notwithstanding-her-victory-tsai-ing-wen-needs-to-be-pragmatic-on-relations-with-beijing/
Ex: Lawsuit notwithstanding, xxx casino construction begins https://news.worldcasinodirectory.com/lawsuit-notwithstanding-cowlitz-casino-construction-begins-21382

to lick something difficult: to deal with it successfully

If you say sth on the record, you state it publicly.
If you are on record as saying sth, you state it publicly and officially.
Ex: Zayn Malik Finally Confirms on the Record That Gigi Hadid Is His Girlfriend http://www.eonline.com/news/736552/zayn-malik-finally-confirms-on-the-record-that-gigi-hadid-is-his-girlfriend
Ex: Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe for 36 years, is on record as saying only God will remove him from power. https://www.enca.com/africa/zanu-pf-suc ... -gods-call
最後由 Kooper 於 週五 2月 12, 2016 12:10 am 編輯,總共編輯了 2 次。
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Rock » 週五 2月 12, 2016 12:00 am

How world sees U.S. vote
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/28/opinions/presidential-election-international-views-roundup/

I was wondering why we should care about an election of a foreign country, then, after reading this article, I realized that many people around the world do care about it a lot. America really is a busy country. :lol:

Lacking of background knowledge, I was overwhelmed by the difficult vocabulary and didn't know clearly what I was reading. Is it even possible to catch up with Kooper on this topic? :roll:
頭像
Rock
Vice President
 
文章: 1865
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週五 2月 12, 2016 12:27 am

Whether we like it or not, the media will churn out tons of news reports on this campaign for the whole 2016. Since we will see them everywhere, I just thought it might be a good idea taking this opportunity to enrich our political vocabulary and knowledge. I am glad my initiative has drawn Rock's attention. Hopefully more YoYoers are going to bite. :ssmile:
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章nczakon » 週五 2月 12, 2016 11:15 am

Very interesting post! >Perhaps< coincidentally, I just emailed Tashi about hosting such a discussion about 30 mins before Kooper created this post. I appreciate how much the Yoyo Club members have been discussing Taiwanese politics recently and I thought it was my responsibility to be in the proverbial "hot seat". I find this topic a bit depressing because there are so many candidates that are very bigoted and hateful and I am really ashamed (even though I know that it's not my fault or responsibility) that so many Americans are seriously considering voting for them. Furthermore, this process has become more of a circus and lacks the gravitas that I would expect from a future leader of the free world. I think Rock's CNN post is very pertinent because it discusses why the non-American world cares so much about this process as well.

For the record, I plan on voting for the Democratic candidate, Bernie Sanders. I volunteered to get Barack Obama elected 8 years ago and I feel the same way then as I do now, I'm concerned about Hillary Clinton's lack of popularity and I also question her commitment to making Washington more open and transparent to the American people. The items that I'm concerned about is the increase of the influence of big business and big bank lobbyists in Washington, the wars that the U.S. is fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the prevalence of spying by the US government. I can't say that I agree with all of Bernie Sanders policies, but I think that he has the vision to making America and the American people better. I'll try to find some relevant articles on this general topic.
nczakon
Member
 
文章: 3
註冊時間: 週三 1月 27, 2016 1:37 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Rock » 週五 2月 12, 2016 2:43 pm

Wow! A voter shows up! Now this discussion is upgraded and more meaningful. Thanks to the man on the "hot seat", this time we can talk about politics safely. To make things more interesting, maybe I can hypothetically sided with Trump and be his advocate in this discussion?

On the second thought, Michael is much more suitable for this job. :lol:
頭像
Rock
Vice President
 
文章: 1865
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週五 2月 12, 2016 5:13 pm

If I am not mistaken, nczakon is Dan. Hi Dan, it’s good to see you here!

Speaking of Bernie Sanders, there’s an interesting New York Times article discussing one major difference between Sanders and Clinton – their approaches to reach liberal goals; Sanders advocates new, expansive and universal programs that benefits a broad range of constituencies. These big programs, however, mostly require legislative actions and tax increases. On the contrary, Clinton takes a similar approach to the Obama administration. Reprioritizing existing programs and using regulations, incentives and tax credits are their weapons to achieve policy goals. Considering the fact that the Congress has been deeply polarized for more than a decade and there is virtually no sign of conciliation, the road Clinton takes seem to be more down-to-earth. The gap might stem from Sanders' lack in governing experiences. Of course such verdict could be jumping the gun. The president Obama was anything but experienced when he ran for president in 2008. He eventually learned the political truth in US and developed this novel but more complicated approach.
最後由 Kooper 於 週五 2月 12, 2016 5:26 pm 編輯,總共編輯了 1 次。
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週五 2月 12, 2016 5:24 pm

Here is the article that I mentioned above.

Is the Era of Big-Program Liberalism Over? (Quoted from NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/opini ... 93702&_r=0)

The essence of Mr. Sanders’s version of liberalism is government programs. Expansive initiatives that provide benefits to “a broad cross-class constituency,” as the Harvard political sociologist Theda Skocpol puts it, such as Social Security and Medicare, are not only good policy, they’re at the heart of liberal politics ...... His proposals for single-payer health care, free college tuition and paid family leave financed through a small payroll tax reflect the view that successful programs should be universal and create a connection between individuals and government ...

That’s in sharp contrast to the policy approach of the Obama administration since about 2011, and also to Hillary Clinton and most of Mr. Sanders’s congressional colleagues. Their agendas are most interesting and novel for the absence of big, universal programs that require legislative action. Instead, they test the limits of what government can do by rearranging the pieces of existing programs, using regulations, incentives to states, tax credits and “nudges” informed by behavioral economics in place of direct spending.

What does that say about the future of big programs? Unless Mr. Sanders can sweep to power with a mandate and wide congressional majorities that share his view — the “political revolution” he promises — the future of social and economic policy will involve, for better or worse, these complex, incremental and often invisible changes, instead of big programs ...

It’s all a lot more complicated — and for candidate Clinton, especially in the primary, a tougher sell — than a single new program in which government takes most of the responsibility. But it fits well with the methods employed by the Obama administration in the years since the president realized that he could not expect to achieve an ambitious program with a deeply partisan Congress and a Republican House ...

It’s more than just congressional intransigence and polarization that led liberals to move beyond big new programs. Passage of the Affordable Care Act finally put in place the last big piece of the New Deal’s agenda. And the cautiousness of most Democratic candidates about taxes makes it difficult to push for new programs. While Mr. Sanders acknowledges that his new programs will require tax increases, he uses the same rule as Mrs. Clinton and President Obama — no tax increases on households under $250,000 — in several of his initiatives, and claims that he will pay for the cost of others through taxes on the “billionaire class” ...
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Luis Ko » 週五 2月 12, 2016 9:58 pm

actually i'm not really interested in it, the republican or the democratic it's just a rich people's game of throne, according to an American. but, since it might be a topic for yoyo meeting so,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/us/politics/republican-debate.html?emc=edit_th_20160207&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=53678751

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/politics/democratic-debate.html?emc=edit_th_20160212&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=53678751
i might be a cynic and, a sceptic as well but, i'm definitely not a bad person!!
Luis Ko
YOYO member
 
文章: 801
註冊時間: 週三 6月 06, 2007 10:18 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Iris Wu » 週五 2月 12, 2016 11:31 pm

Kooper 寫:If I am not mistaken, nczakon is Dan.

Last time we had so many guests in the meeting, so we didn't get chance to have everyone do an appropriate self-introduction.
Dan's last name is Balaban. "nczakon" is actually Nicole Czakon, who is a postdoc researcher in Astronomy at Academia Sinica.
(Actually Nicole did make a brief self-introduction in the meeting. I remember she said her father was from Germany and her mom was from Czech Republic, but she was born and grew up in US, and so she identifies herself as American. She brought up a point that it's not necessary for Taiwanese to identify themselves based on where their parents came from.)

Hope it helps to ring the bell and hope Nicole gets to visit YoYo again soon. I am sure for an open-minded English club like YoYo, we can learn from our guests, especially an subject like this.

For the election, as NY Times pointed out that the Congress is polarized deeper and deeper (actually I feel it's not just the Congress, the whole country is). You wonder between Sanders and Clinton, who would better ease the situation? If Clinton's policies are more down-to-earth, her baggage is too heavy for the Republicans to like her. Sanders is fresh to Washington, but is he going to be like Obama (making two parties more polarized while pushing his idealism on domestic and foreigh policies)?

(Maybe I feel the polarized situation is a critical issue. It's hard to move forward when people in a country cannot work together.)

If you have time to listen to the more complete version of Sanders and Clinton debate in Milwaukee:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1NyT9xJy40
Iris Wu
YOYO member
 
文章: 582
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Kooper » 週六 2月 13, 2016 9:13 am

My bad!
Hi Nicole, it's great to see you here! Please feel free to share more of your thoughts on the forum or at the regular gatherings. :D
Kooper
Vice President
 
文章: 2398
註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章nczakon » 週六 2月 13, 2016 4:57 pm

Hi Everyone,

Yes, this is Nicole. I apologize for not picking a more recognizable username. I enjoy spending time with the Yoyo club members and I'm happy to show up on a regular basis.

As you might have noticed, there are an infinite number of articles that you can read that are pertinent to this discussion. Furthermore, I think that if people get hung up on the personalities of the individual candidates, it becomes distracting and even more confusing. Therefore, I hereby attempt to setup a method by which to classify and organize many of the relevant issues and ideas that are involved in this election, which I will enumerate below:

1. Why do so many people care?

1a. While the US can no longer claim to be a unilateral super power (hegemon), the President of the United States is still the most well-known political figure in the world because he or she is popularly elected by a very large and economically powerful country. In fact, America is the country with the largest economy in the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... P_(nominal)

1b. The popular election in itself stresses the importance of personality, and this is something that interests humans in general.

2. The most important demographic features that influenced how people vote:

2a. Geographic location: the West and Northeast generally vote for Democrats. The central and southern states generally vote for Republicans: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/elections.php
Although, as seen in the above link and as I later mention below, this has changed considerably overtime.

East: 2004 (22% of population): 56% Kerry, 44% G.W. Bush.
Midwest: 2004 (26% of population): 48% Kerry, 51% G.W. Bush.
South: 2004 (32% of population): 42% Kerry, 58% G.W. Bush.
West: 2004 (20% of population): 50% Kerry, 49% G.W. Bush.

2b. Race:

Blacks: generally vote for Democrats:
2012 (13% of population): 93% Obama, 6% Romney.
2004 (11% of population): 88% Kerry, 11% G.W. Bush.

Whites:
2012 (72% of population): 39% Obama, 59% Romney.
2004: (% of population): 41% Kerry, 58% G.W. Bush.

Latinos: Latinos are predominantly Catholic and therefore have conservative social values. They tend to be conservative when it comes to the economy but more liberal when it comes to immigration policy and this is their most important issue when voting.
2012 (10% of population): 71% Obama, 27% Romney.
2004 (8% of population): 53% Kerry, 44% G.W. Bush.

2c. Age:

Young People: Tend to vote Democratic, but if they lack passion for a particular candidate, they often don’t bother to come out to vote.
18-29: 2012 (19% of population): 60% Obama, 37% Romney.
18-24: 2004 (9% of population): 56% Kerry, 43 G.W. Bush

65+: Tend to vote Republican, very reliable voters.
2012 (16% of population): 44% Obama, 56% Romney.
2004 (16% of population): 47% Kerry, 52% G.W. Bush

2d. Religion: Christians vote overhwelmingly for Republicans primarily because Republicans are against abortion.

2e. Gender: Not super important, but women do tend to vote more often for Democrats.
Sources:
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us ... oted-2012/ http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us ... oted-2004/

3. American politics is dominated by two parties: the Democrats and the Republicans. As the American voter base changes, so do the parties. This effectively results in an even balance of power between the two parties. Here is an oft-used example of when the overall voter base of the parties shifted:

In 1865, Abraham Lincoln, who was a Republican, won the American Civil War for the North. Bittered by this defeat, the South remained loyal to the Democratic party up until the 1970s when Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, passed the Civil Rights Act and expanded the rights of the Blacks in the South. For this reason, Blacks currently vote overwhelmingly for Democrats and White Southerneres overwhelmingly vote for Republicans.

4. Balance of Power: While the President of the United States is often considered to be the most powerful person in the world, he or she can’t do whatever they want because of the system of checks and balances in the United States. There are three branches in the American government:

4a. Executive (President): Has veto power over any of the laws passed by the legislative branch, is the most highly ranked person in the army (i.e., Commander and Chief) and has the power to wage war, has the ability to pass executive orders ( I don’t really understand what these are myself, but this is an important power).

4b. Legislative (The Senate and House of Representatives): passes laws, has the ability to impeach the President.

4c. Judicial (The Supreme Court): Lifetime appointment, has the power to declare anything that the executive or legislative branches do as unconstitional and therefore, illegal.

Because of these checks and balances, what a presidential candidate says on the campaign trail doesn’t necessarily become reality when they’re in office. Therefore, voters need to balance what the candidates say with the overal effect that they think that a specific candidate will have on the government.

5. Issues:

5a. The economy/taxes: By far the most important issue, although each voter has a different opinion on how to solve this. Democrats tend to vote for a government safety net which implies raising taxes, particularly on the rich. Republicans tend to vote for a free market economy and lowering of taxes overall.

5b. Disatisfaction with the current government: this is probably the single issue that explains the popularity of, err, populist candidates such as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Therefore, while they represent extreme ends of the political spectrum, Amercan voters are overwhelming indicating that this is an extremely important issue.

5c. Immigration: This is a very important issue for Hispanics. Very conservative Whites tend to have a negative opinion about the ~10 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States.

5d. Social welfare services: Elderly are big beneficiaries of Medicare (National healthcare for those over 65 years of age), therefore both Republicans and Democrats are big supporters of Medicare. Democrats tend to vote for expanded benefits for poor people, whereas Republicans are generally against this.

5e. National defense: Many Republicans are supporters of the idea of “small government”. Furthermore, the National government should be restricted to protecting the country via the military. Democrats tend to vote for the candidates that don’t make sure a big deal of protecting the country (i.e. fighting wars).

5f. Gun control: Many rural Americans support the Republicans because they are opposed to gun control. Many Blacks are in support of gun control because gun violence is a large problem in the inner cities where many Blacks live.

5g. Abortion: Has become an issue with the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s and 1970s. Democrats generally support abortion and Republicans are against abortion on religious grounds.
nczakon
Member
 
文章: 3
註冊時間: 週三 1月 27, 2016 1:37 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Iris Wu » 週六 2月 13, 2016 11:33 pm

Just like all the party politics in the world, each party has its own set of core values. The core values of Democrats and Republicans reflect the differences on those controversial issues listed above. Most people, regardless they join a party officially or not, they find their own core values match one side or the other in many of these issues, but they don't always match all.

Personally, I think I am “allergic to most Republicans”, but I don't really like some of Democratic party's standpoints, such as its closed bonds with labor unions, and I don't appreciate the extreme leftism (socialists). I believe certain level of the free market and free economy is better to sustain the creativity and compatibility, so when it gets to “increase or reduce taxes for big corporations” issue, I don't really know what is the best. You want to shrink the wealth inequality gap, but in the meantime, you don't want to drive all the businesses away. For things like this, you would hope two parties can sit down and work out something for the benefits of most people in the country.

In addition to the ideas and issues between the two parties, I found the process of election is amusing. Till now, I still don't quite understand how the US Presidential primary elections and caucuses work. The first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire have had their vote on their party candidates, but how did they come out the results? Can non-Democrats vote for Democratic candidates (or I should say, the Democratic delegates/caucuses)? Once in an episode of "The Good Wife" (a TV series), the Democratic party primary election was held in a high school auditaurim. It was amusing how each side grab people into their side. I wonder how true it is and how they count the delegates?
Iris Wu
YOYO member
 
文章: 582
註冊時間: 週二 5月 20, 2014 4:33 pm

Re: Articles on US Presidential Election

文章Rock » 週日 2月 14, 2016 5:54 pm

Wow! Thank you so much, Nicole, for such detailed information, and it's easy to read, too. Did you simplify your wordings for us or is it your regular writing style? :D Anyway, I learned a lot from it.

One question: Is it ok to guess that Republican presidents, like Bush, are more likely to fight China and support Taiwan in their foreign policy?
頭像
Rock
Vice President
 
文章: 1865
註冊時間: 週三 10月 31, 2007 9:03 am

下一頁

回到 學習心得分享 Learning Tips

誰在線上

正在瀏覽這個版面的使用者:沒有註冊會員 和 1 位訪客

cron