ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章Sherry Liao » 週五 11月 11, 2011 2:32 am

Dear ISG members,

This week let’s watch a 10-minute TED talk about global population growth. In fact, this talk was planed to be one of the background materials for next week’s YOYO meeting topic in the first place. Now I find it is just a perfect learning material for ISG members:



Before the meeting:
Please watch the video and write an essay or make a summary of the speech. If you watch it on TED website, please be sure not to turn on the subtitle at least for the first few times. I hope you will like the accent of the speaker (I guess it’s Swedish… :wink: )

During the meeting:
You will find that the speaker used some splendid ways to represent his idea in the TED talk. Let’s do some practice to hone our representation skills as well. I will post several tables and/or charts about demographics before the meeting, and we can practice our representation skills by explaining the figures and illustrating our opinions with the findings in the graphs.
Sherry Liao
YOYO member
 
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註冊時間: 週五 12月 07, 2007 12:15 pm

Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章toshi » 週五 11月 11, 2011 2:00 pm

I watched all him talks on TED. He built up a very useful website Gapminder. Try to learn how to use the Gapminder World. I once demonstrated the comparison of CO2 emission between some countries by using this tool. A very helpful tool!
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Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章Kooper » 週六 11月 12, 2011 8:33 am

Can the world population grow forever? The answer is obviously NO - given limited resources available on the earth. The total number of human beings has experienced continuous growth since 1350; today this number has been put at seven billions and has shown few signs, if at all, of stopping growth. Hans Rosling, a Swedish professor of global health, projected in the speech that the size of global human society would eventually stabilize at nine billions by 2050 – on condition that a few things had to be done right.

History repeats itself. Emerging countries like China and India are now following in developed countries’ steps; living standards are rising. Hygiene is improving. Vaccination and medication become more accessible to the public. Education and family planning is turning prevalent. The forces of change have added up to more than 90% child survival rate and smaller families - less than three children per women - in these countries, which in turn is leading to more stable national populations.

The global population, however, is and will continue expanding, thanks to two billion people who are still struggling with poverty. Statistics show that birth rates of this category remain as high as six children per woman and child survival rates are relatively lower – 70% to 80%. Hans underlined that efforts had to be made to help this group of people undergo the same transformation as China and India.

Population control along doesn’t guarantee a ticket to a sustainable earth, however. It has been repeatedly proved in emerging markets that the forming of a larger middle class comes at the price of soaring resource consumption – food, goods, energy, and raw materials – and deteriorating pollution.

On the way to reach a stable nine billions population, the combination of the 30% more human from now to 2050 and the extravagant consumption of resources by developing and developed countries could have overloaded Mother Nature. To avert this catastrophic end, it is crucial for the global village to collaborate and take immediate steps towards slashing - not just cutting - its energy consumption and pollution.
Kooper
Vice President
 
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註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章Sherry Liao » 週六 11月 12, 2011 9:30 pm

Dear ISG members,

The following are for practicing in the meeting:

圖檔
Life Expectancy 2005-2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Life_ ... P_2006.PNG


圖檔
Infant mortality rate
http://www.globalization101.org/issue_s ... of_disease


圖檔
Health care expenses vs. Life expectancy
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/he ... xpectancy/


圖檔
World population
http://ossfoundation.us/projects/enviro ... ading-edge


圖檔
World fertility rates forecast
http://www.economist.com/node/14743589


圖檔
World crude birth and death rates 1950 - 2010
http://www.rickety.us/2009/10/world-tot ... -declines/


圖檔
Infant mortality by race/ethnicity and education
http://facts.kff.org/chart.aspx?ch=372


圖檔
US fertility rates
http://www.davinciinstitute.com/papers/ ... ity-rates/


圖檔
Wealth and fertility by country 2007
http://peopleint.wordpress.com/2010/10/ ... lity-rate/


圖檔
Life expectancy by country and gender
http://publichealthandinternationaldeve ... press.com/


圖檔
Life expectancy as a function of GDP per capita
http://exnikhilo.blogspot.com/2010/06/l ... p-per.html


圖檔
Fertility rates world map

圖檔
Child mortality by regions
http://www.mydochub.com/blog/index.php/ ... countries/


圖檔
Chart of Life Span from 1600 to 2010
http://www.drdach.com/BioIdentical_Hormones.html
Sherry Liao
YOYO member
 
文章: 1391
註冊時間: 週五 12月 07, 2007 12:15 pm

Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章Kooper » 週六 11月 12, 2011 10:22 pm

Just updated my essay.
Kooper
Vice President
 
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註冊時間: 週三 4月 11, 2007 11:40 pm

Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章chiron » 週日 11月 13, 2011 7:16 am

Kooper 寫:On the way to reach a stable nine billions population, the combination of the 30% more human from now to 2050 and the extravagant consumption of resources by developing and developed countries could have overloaded Mother Nature. To avert this catastrophic end, it is crucial for the global village to collaborate and take immediate steps towards slashing - not just cutting - its energy consumption and pollution.

I remember I've told Kooper, if everyone wants to reach satisfying success and prosperity, that would be very catastrophic to our mother earth.
I'm not in to polish my writing, so i don't want to write lengthy summary now that kooper has already did his best demo. But after watching this video, i think of what my professor used to told me: the most communicable concept is not always the best idea. people can't well understand difficult academic articles but easy, maybe over-simplified ikea box analogy.
最後由 chiron 於 週日 11月 13, 2011 7:32 am 編輯,總共編輯了 1 次。
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Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章Sherry Liao » 週日 11月 13, 2011 7:30 am

Fifty years ago, an enormous economic gap existed between the industrialized world and the developing world. One billion people in the industrialized world, which was about one-third of the world’s population at that time, were healthy, educated, and rich, while the rest in the world were struggling to have food for the day.

In 2010, the world’s population size have expended to seven billion people. Economy in the west world has been growing to a even higher level. Concerning the rest of the world, one billion in developing countries have successfully moved on and their countries become emerging economies; three billion have their economy and education improved; however, there are still two billion people almost as poor as they were fifty years ago. The gap between advanced countries and the rest is eliminated, but the distance between the two ends of the spectrum is wider than ever.

So what will happen fifty years later from now? The emerging economies is likely to forge ahead and join the developed countries, and the lower income countries will keep progressing in economy if luckily climate change problems alleviate and energy become relatively cheap. However, the crux of the matter will be the poorest two billion people today. It is predicted the population is going to explode if child survival rate remains low, since families produce more babies to offset the infant mortality. To be worse, they will still be as poor as before.

The only way to solve the problem is to help people in the poorest level get out of proverty, get education and medication. Only if they are healthy, educated and economically affordable as rich country people, will the global population stop to grow. A effective child survival plan is the key to it.
最後由 Sherry Liao 於 週日 11月 13, 2011 7:42 am 編輯,總共編輯了 1 次。
Sherry Liao
YOYO member
 
文章: 1391
註冊時間: 週五 12月 07, 2007 12:15 pm

Re: ISG 111113 Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth

文章chiron » 週日 11月 13, 2011 7:39 am

Sherry Liao 寫:So what will happen fifty years later? The emerging economies is likely to forge ahead and join the developed countries, and the lower income countries will keep progressing in economy if luckily climate change problems alleviate and energy become relatively cheap. However, the crux of the matter will be the poorest two billion people today. It is predicted the population is going to explode if child survival rate remains low, since families produce more babies to offset the infant mortality.

Yeah, you are so right, but remember the speaker used so many "if". The assumption is the poorest countries can gid rid of poverty or all these above-mentioned won't happen and world population won't just stop there. i'm so curious when sherry starts to worry this issue??

p.s. oh, my goodness, where did you get all those diagrams??
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