As early as 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping already told a group of western visitors: “We must all work together to avoid Thucydides’s trap.”
Some Americans said Chinese leaders study history more than their US counterparts do. Judging by this case, it does sound like a fair statement!
Thucydides was born 2500 years ago. He wrote “History of the Peloponnesian War”, which recounts the 5th Century BC war between Sparta and Athens. Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
In 2012, a Harvard professor Graham Allison observed the growing tensions between the US and China and coined the term, “Thucydides’s Trap”, to depict the scenario that “the rivalry between an established power and a rising one often ends in war”.
In the past decades, we’ve witnessed the rising, the waning and the wrestling of the two techonomic powerhouses. Indisputably, many characteristics of both countries have helped their rise and staying on the top, but power balance is like a zero-sum game – the shifting of dominance is inevitably causing some contractions. Will the economic and technological competition become military and territorial conflicts?
History doesn’t repeat itself, but “don’t underestimate human stupidity” as said by Dr. Harari. Let’s see how history is going to unfold.
Notes:
- Though Taiwan is in a sensitive position, our thoughts and wishes carry little weight in the real world. The reason I chose this subject is probably just because I came across a website, Intelligence Squared and found this round-table discussion interesting and the arguments brought up by the debaters pretty compelling. (See Links in Reference (2))
References for the meeting:
1) “Thucydides's Trap”: Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides ... dides-trap
(Please read the introduction and watch the 3-minute video on this page)
2) “The U.S. and China Will Both Lose the Trade War”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CddK86g90o
(This is the motion 3 in “Unresolved: The Techonomic Cold War with China” debate on Intelligence Squared, IQ²)
- “After months of tit-for-tat tariffs, rising tensions, a high-profile arrest, and unsuccessful trade talks, the United States and China remain tied up in a heated trade dispute. Will one country come out on top? Some say China can play the long game because President Xi doesn’t have an election to worry about and China can substitute for U.S. goods, while others say China has more to lose as its economic growth reverses. Will both the U.S. and China lose the trade war, and are the real winners in Japan, Europe, and Mexico? Or will the world see a victor when these contentious trade disputes are resolved?” – IQ²
Or if you have time, you can watch the full-length debate on IQ² website:
https://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/d ... -war-china
https://www.gpbnews.org/post/zero-sum-t ... ld-leaders
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business ... n-business
4) Real reason for arrest of Huawei CFO (5-min video clip on YouTube)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fDUgBJ8yfY
5) 中美貿易戰惡鬥一年 川普到底是如何完勝習近平?
https://udn.com/news/story/6839/3747342
Session I:
1. Do you agree with the theory of “Thucydides’s Trap”? Do you think U.S.-China will fall into the trap and end in war? Why or why not?
2. Who holds the upper hand in the U.S. and China trade war in your opinion? Will both lose in the battle? Who do you wish to be the final winner and why?
3. What are the purposes of studying history? Do you think people learn from history? Between Presidents Trump and Xi, do they apply “lessons learned from history” differently?
Session II:
1. What are the real reasons behind Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou extradition?
2. Do you think the next Silicon Valley will be in China? Why or why not?
3. What do you like about Trump’s China policies? Will any of his strategies/tactics backfire?
*******************************************************************************************************************************************
Agenda:
6:50~ 7:00pm Greetings & Free Talk / Ordering Beverage or Meal / Getting Newcomer’s Information
7:00 ~ 7:20pm Opening Remarks / Newcomer’s Self-introduction / Grouping
(Session I)
7:20 ~ 8:00pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
8:00 ~ 8:20pm Summarization (20 mins)
8:20 ~ 8:30pm Regrouping / Instruction Giving / Taking a 10 Minutes Break (Intermission)
(Session II)
8:30 ~ 9:10pm Discussion Session (40 mins)
9:10 ~ 9:30pm Summarization / Concluding Remarks / Announcements (20 mins) ********************************************************************************************************************************************
聚會日期:列於該貼文主題內
聚會時間:請準時 7:00 pm 到 ~ 約 9:30 pm 左右結束
星期二聚會地點:丹堤濟南店
地址、電話:台北市濟南路三段25號 地圖 (02) 2740-2350
捷運站:板南線 忠孝新生站 3 號出口
走法:出忠孝新生站 3 號出口後,沿著巷子(忠孝東路三段10巷)走約 2 分鐘,到了濟南路口,左轉走約 2 分鐘即可看到。
最低消費: 80 元
注意事項:
1. 文章是否需要列印請自行斟酌,但與會者請務必自行列印 Questions for discussion。
2. 與會者請先閱讀過文章,並仔細想過所有的問題,謝謝合作!
給新朋友的話:
1. 請事先準備2~3分鐘的英語自我介紹。
2. 請事先閱讀文章以及主持人所提的討論問題,並事先寫下自己所欲發表意見的英文。
3. 全程以英語進行,參加者應具備中等英語會話能力,對任一討論問題,能夠以5到10句英文表達個人見解。
4. 在正式加入之前,可以先來觀摩三次,觀摩者亦須參與討論。正式加入需繳交終身會費 NT$1,000。