Never Trump

[Luis Ko]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/us/po ... 78751&_r=0

it's called democracy? interesting..

[Rock]

Of course it's democracy! It's as messy as democracy can be, and that's also what we have here in Taiwan.

[Rock]

If Trump the Great were elected as the President, if all the white people united together for their most benefit, then they can kick the ass of the African, Latino and Asian, no matter on the land of the America or in the world.

And it's still democracy.

[Luis Ko]

spot on!

Rock's points are always full of perceptive insights..

[Rock]

Nah~~ those are just my two cents. You guys are much better than me.

But then again, I still think that Mr. Trump won't win. The white people, as a majority in the USA, won't be bullies. The Trump phenomenon is an anomaly. American people will make another wise decision and keep their good tradition.

[Luis Ko]

then, that's anybody's guess lo~

[Michael-liu]

But then again, I still think that Mr. Trump won't win.

Mr. Trump won't win? Check out the following news :

Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth has created a statistical algorithm that uses a candidate’s performance in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast the winner of the presidential election.

Should Trump follow through on his huge momentum and become the Republican nominee, he has a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth told The Statesman, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

The accuracy of the model built by Norpoth stands at 96.1%, and works for every single presidential election going back to 1912, with the only exception being the 1960 contest, when John F. Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard Nixon.

“You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’” Norpoth said. “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”
According to Norpoth’s model, in a popular vote Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent.

However, the professor’s confidence in Trump beating Hillary isn’t replicated in polls of a hypothetical head to head between the former Secretary of State and The Donald.

According to a Real Clear Politics average, Trump lags behind Hillary by almost three points, although that gap has reduced in recent weeks.

His forecast is also contradicted by betting odds, which universally predict Hillary Clinton to be the next President, with Trump’s chances of taking the Oval Office a long shot at around 250-1. (Wow!! 賭盤賭川普贏的賠率是1賠250 )

[Rock]

Cool!! So he, and the USA, are going to kick some asses? The world sure is an interesting place.

[Kooper]

But then again, I still think that Mr. Trump won't win.

Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth has created a statistical algorithm that uses a candidate’s performance in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast the winner of the presidential election.

Should Trump follow through on his huge momentum and become the Republican nominee, he has a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth.
)

I would trust Norpoth's model only if it managed to predict Trump's landslide wins in the primary one year ago. The Trump phenomenon is unprecedented and thus I doubt any predictive algorithm based on historical data will work.

[Michael-liu]

I personally also believe independent voters in America are rational and will not vote for Trump, so their votes will play a decisive role in the result of 2016 US presidential election. Trump probably will not beat Hillary

[Michael-liu]

For your reference, what I read from CNN website:

The reasons why so many Americans love Donald Trump

1. He's real.

2. He doesn't care what you think.

3. Many Americans hate Washington.

4. You want to see him debate.

[Rock]

I don’t know No.3 and 4, but some of my students are also real, and really really don’ t care what other people think. I always hit them on the head and make them listen to others.

I guess some people like, or even worship, a public figure on TV with this trait of audacity. But would they like him as a person? Who knows? Sometimes people do call this trait "bigotry".